C. Demidenko

Lord Byron & Russian Academy of Science

Moscow 1996

In November, 1995 an agreement, stipulating cessation of the hostilities on the Balkans was initialed in Deiton and in December,14 signed in Paris. After almost four years of the war the sides came to the conclusion of possibility of the settlement of all moot questions in peaceful way. But there are more than enough unsettled questions and mutual pretensions. Let’s point out just some of them:

in Bosnia and Herzegovina: destiny of the Serb population in Saraevo, Posavino corridor, corridor near Gorazde, Muslim refugees of Srebrenitsa, Muslim enclave Bihac, Serb cities Markonic Grad and Sipovo; destiny of the Serbs in the Eastern Slavonia, return home of the Serbs of Krajna. Actually any of these problems may seriously complicate relations between the sides.

The postwar structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina is also probleatic. According to the documents signed, Bosnia and Herzegovina remains united state in frames of its present internationally recognized borders with capital in Saraevo, but will be divided in two parts: Serb Republic and Bosnian Muslim-Croatian Federation. With that, central government of Bosnia and Herzegovina will control in particular, the problems of international relations, foreign trade-economic activity, finances and citizenship. How will Serb Republic and Bosnian Muslim-Croatian Federation interact with each other and Central government? Who will be elected in the Central bodies of the leadership of Bosnia and Herzegovina and will those elections take place? How Bosnian leaders will behave themselves, if they wont be given a chance to participate in the elections, and will be forcibly discharged from power and brought to trial as war criminals? There are many other questions, every of which can lead to serious complications in process of realization.

Military operation of the multinational forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina that just started, in which besides countries of NATO fifteen states else take part, is designed to be a guarantor of the peace keeping in the republic and favour the quickest settlement of the present disagreements. They think in NATO that one of the most important tasks of the militaries will be disarmament of the belligerent sides. Multinational forces are willing to obtain the least possible level of the armament of the participants of the conflict and approximate military balance between them for anybody’s military advantage would not lead to the renewal of the fights. And Defense Secretary of the USA U. Parry, giving a press-conference in the head quarters of the alliance, has not excluded, that in a half a year, if such a balance would not be reached, allies will be able to rearm one of the sides, for example Bosnian government in Saraevo. And Bosnian Serbs in their turn have stated that they recognize the status of the peace keeping forces only that of the contingents of Russia and Ukraine, and will consider military forces of the other countries on their territory as aggressors.

NATO members could face much heavier difficulties in Bosnia than “Blue helmets”, if they were considered as aggressors. Especially dangerous trap for them can become the regions of the separation and that territory that is to be re - divided, according to the peace agreement concluded in Deiton. As it’s known, the fate of the agreement of the Presidents of three countries was in such a danger namely because of those questions. The most powerful force opposing NATO contingent may occur the army of the Bosnian Serbs, that includes about 80 thousand people, and armed with 460 tanks and 1200 artillery barrels. And moreover, experts indicate on the availability of more than 1000 mercenaries from different Islam countries, including Algeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Egypt in the Muslim Bosnian army. Danger can come out from the side of “propagated” there well armed bands, marauding of which can be stopped by arrival of the NATO troops.

Initially the USA stated that NATO operation, in which they would play the most important role, will last no more than a year. But later U. Parry has not excluded even more term. “Twelve months is an aim, but not a strict scheme”, - he pointed out. Thus IFOR can become a sword, that will keep any fitting to the Americans puppet regime in Bosnia.

An agreement has been signed, mutual recognition of Bosnia and Herzegovina and URY has been realized, mutual recognition of Croatia and URY also must take place. A colored political map of Bosnia and Herzegovina, on which the borders of the separation according to Paris peace treaty- Serb Republic and Bosnian Muslim- Croatian Federation, has been already issued in Belgrade. But how do the interested sides think to develop further their relations?

Radovan Karajic considers Deiton agreements and treaty signed in Paris on Bosnia and Herzegovina a “defeat for all the Serbs”.

Speaking on the session of Scupshina (Parliament) of Bosnian Serbs in the middle of December, he motivated his opinion that preservation of present Yugoslavia required too large sacrifice- fall of the Republic Serbska Krajna under the strikes of Croatian army. As to the Bosnian Serbs, just with titanic efforts “ they managed to step aside from the edge of the abyss, on which they had been set under the pressure of the world community, and inner contradictions”. With that he stressed that official Belgrade must immediately abandon the policy of economic blockade of the Serb Republic from the side of URY and unfriendly propaganda in Yugoslavian mass media, that is being conducted for the last 15 months.

Having strictly criticized Deiton agreements and Paris peace treaty, R. Karajic specially marked out, that the question on the transmission of the Serb part of Saraevo and some territories in Posavino corridor to the Muslim-Croatian Federation became “unpleasant surprise” for the Bosnian Serbs, because it caused damage to the Serb people not only from the moral point of view, but also from geo-strategic and cultural one”. Having summoned the Serbs “grudgingly continue the formation of their own state” in Bosnia, Radovan Karajic said that it was necessary to support the aspiration of the Serbs in Saraevo not to obey the power of the Muslims under themselves”.

In course of the session of Skupshina of the Serb Republic overwhelming majority of the deputies strictly criticized Paris peace treaty, stressing with that that it does not follow previously agreed formalities of the territorial separation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Following the words of the member of the Expert Commission of the Bosnian Serbs Vladimir Lukic, according to the peace treaty, the Serb Republic will have not 49% of the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as had been agreed earlier with international mediators, but 48,67% territories. Purely qualitative infringement of the Serb interests is doubled with the fact that the Muslims and Croats in Bosnia will be given not only strategically important places but also the soils rich with minerals, with developed infrastructure and industrial base.

Prime - Minister of the Serb Republic Rajko Kasagic, cautiously expressed the hope in the interview to CPHA agency, that in course of the further negotiations the Serbs in Bosnia will at least be provided with “a particular level of constitutional independence”. Having agreed that in course of settlement of the questions on territorial separation with the Muslim-Croatian Federation the Serbs have been given a particular part of the fertile soil, quite rich with the minerals also, never the less the Serbs in Bosnia can not be satisfied with the establishment of the united currency with the Muslims and Croatians in Bosnia and Herzegovina, because it may hamper the establishment of close economic relations with Yugoslavia”. As we see, present leadership of the Bosnian Serbs is not willing to strengthen united Serb-Muslim-Croatian state in Bosnia.

There frequently appeared statements on disagreements between the Muslims and Croatians in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Muslim- Croatian federation mostly exists due to the efforts and pressure of the USA.

On the negotiations now going on in Vienna on the obtaining less level of armament, including tanks, combat helicopters and quantity of the armed forces in the region, in which the representatives of Bosnia, Croatian-Muslim Federation and Serb Republic take part, and also the delegations of Yugoslavia and Croatia, the sides must reach an agreement on the key questions before 26 January. Negotiations are designed to be ended before 6 June of this year.

President of the USA Clinton has stated that if during six months after negotiations start, there will not be reached an agreement needed, the decision on 25% reduction of the arsenals of the arms of Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia will be taken.

Correlation of force in Bosnia between Croatian-Muslim federation and Bosnian Serbs will be established as 2 to 1. Thus, the USA aspire to weaken the positions of the Bosnian Serbs and provide domination of the forces of the Muslim-Croatian federation in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

In Western European mass media and in the statements of the militaries of the European countries an idea of the danger of Islam fundamentalism of Alia Iserbegovic, hidden for a while, can be frequently heard. The messages of the volunteers and mercenaries from the Islam countries, which include the demands of the possibly quickest withdrawal of theirs from Bosnia are often met in Western press. Obviously, some political forces are not interested in the presence of the Islam fighters in Bosnia and Herzegovina. All this deeply contradicts to the global strategy of the USA towards radical Islam.

So, what is present conclusion- ultimate settlement of the problem or intermediate variant, official establishment of what had been reached or a springboard for further activities in Bosnia and Herzegovina? The question is rhetorical.

* * * * *

Now basic questions, existing before the beginning of the war still remain unsettled: will Bosnia and Herzegovina with its population, including Muslims, Serbs and Croats, suffering mutual suspiciousness, survive as a united state? What extent of autonomy will be given to the Serb minority, that lives on the borders of Bosnia and Herzegovina? How long will Muslim-Croatian federation exist? And many others.

Now, we can just establish a fact that the war is stopped, and the settlement of the sharpest questions is brought into the peaceful way. There is some time to ponder over recent frightening events. But is this the end of the Balkan crisis? Are the contradicting sides and the great powers, in particular the USA and Germany interested in it?

In the nearest future, probably in a year, the sides will keep peace in the region. They will try to recover their economy for this time. Croatia will do it easily,- Germany will help. URY must hope first of all on itself. Its economy, broken with international blockade, split of traditional ties, suffering press of the influx of the refugees, according to the opinion of the experts, is pushed 30 years back. Now Doctor Avramovic makes successful efforts designed at the recover of the economy of the country. The second stage of the economic reforms started. Dinar has got stabilized, investment climate has got better. Abolition of the international sanctions opens new possibilities. URY is very much interested in international investments. Here URY, as other participants of the Balkan crisis, must actively use international background, that is to be built up, for restoration of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Another very important problem for URY will be realization of the active diplomatic line aimed at the establishment of diplomatic relations with other countries and at the entry in international organizations and popularization of its policy.

In middle term perspective namely active international diplomacy, entry and effective activity in international organizations along with recover of economy will give URY and the Bosnian Serbs a chance to keep today’s positions and possibility to go on being adequate opponents of the Bosnian Muslim- Croatian federation and Croatia in order not to unleash new conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

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